Survivorship

Station Information

Habitat

Breeding Status

NBII / MAPS Home Page

MAPS SURVIVAL RATE ESTIMATES

This table displays regional time-constant estimates of annual adult apparent survival probability¹ from modified Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture analyses² (using transient models³); amount of support⁴ for temporal (annual) variation in survival probability obtained from time-dependent models; and the time-dependent models selected⁵ by modified Akaike’s Information Criteria from twelve years (1992-2003) of MAPS data for 179 species⁶ of North American landbirds.

Species

Region⁷

Num.
Stn.⁸

Num.
Indiv.⁹

Num.
Capt.¹⁰

Num. Retrn.¹¹

Survival Probability¹

SE(Φ)

CV(Φ)

w(Φ_t)¹²

Models selected¹³

Williamson's Sapsucker

126

0.292

0.121

41.5

0.002

...

Red-naped Sapsucker

467

801

0.420

0.042

9.9

0.007

...

R-nap. X R-br. Saps. Hybrid

118

0.537

0.110

20.4

0.012

...

Red-breasted Sapsucker

868

1409

151

0.449

0.034

7.5

0.004

...

Downy Woodpecker

435

547

0.340

0.061

18.0

0.017

.t.

Hairy Woodpecker

311

392

0.611

0.055

9.1

0.122

...

..t

Northern Flicker^†

230

253

0.414

0.158

38.2

0.001

...

Olive-sided Flycatcher^*†

0.830

0.202

24.3

0.000

...

Western Wood-Pewee

1354

1803

199

0.509

0.031

6.0

0.077

..t

Willow Flycatcher

1446

2171

241

0.527

0.027

5.1

0.094

..t

Least Flycatcher

0.587

0.168

28.6

0.000

...

Hammond's Flycatcher

1345

1932

219

0.442

0.027

6.2

0.194

...

Dusky Flycatcher

2355

3561

349

0.500

0.021

4.2

0.998

t..

"Western" Flycatcher

1889

2532

235

0.496

0.026

5.3

0.083

...

Cassin's Vireo

573

681

0.566

0.064

11.3

0.002

...

Hutton's Vireo

0.607

0.153

25.2

0.000

...

Warbling Vireo

4477

6639

743

0.489

0.015

3.1

0.029

..t

Red-eyed Vireo

142

214

0.646

0.089

13.8

0.078

...

Gray Jay

0.727

0.080

11.1

0.002

...

Steller's Jay

244

266

0.667

0.095

14.2

0.000

...

Western Scrub-Jay

0.622

0.145

23.3

0.000

...

Tree Swallow

468

652

0.424

0.058

13.7

0.004

...

Violet-green Swallow^*†

0.307

0.240

78.3

0.001

...

N. Rough-winged Swallow^*

0.525

0.261

49.6

0.000

...

Barn Swallow

322

402

0.498

0.065

13.0

0.273

...

t..

.t.

Black-capped Chickadee

1113

1613

202

0.480

0.030

6.3

0.309

...

tt.

.t.

Mountain Chickadee

1189

1499

132

0.454

0.037

8.2

0.029

...

Chestnut-backed Chickadee

1026

1203

0.333

0.048

14.5

0.002

...

Bushtit^†

210

251

0.420

0.140

33.4

0.007

...

Red-breasted Nuthatch

629

705

0.361

0.081

22.6

0.001

...

Brown Creeper

603

763

0.332

0.056

17.0

0.002

...

Bewick's Wren

277

463

0.423

0.051

12.1

0.007

...

House Wren

796

1154

0.339

0.043

12.7

0.001

...

Winter Wren

1053

1721

144

0.361

0.031

8.5

0.426

...

t..

.t.

Golden-crowned Kinglet^*

1059

1317

0.111

0.072

64.7

0.006

...

Ruby-crowned Kinglet

829

1061

0.329

0.059

17.8

0.694

t..

.t.

Veery

181

404

0.570

0.049

8.7

0.001

...

Swainson's Thrush

8808

20241

3561

0.593

0.007

1.1

0.003

...

..t

Hermit Thrush

927

1430

173

0.433

0.030

6.9

0.001

...

American Robin

130

5092

6840

761

0.544

0.015

2.8

0.998

t..

Varied Thrush

436

582

0.453

0.054

12.0

0.171

.t.

Wrentit

613

1440

241

0.550

0.025

4.6

0.895

t..

Gray Catbird

841

1315

170

0.556

0.035

6.4

0.009

...

..t

Cedar Waxwing

1967

2273

0.480

0.105

22.0

0.005

...

Orange-crowned Warbler

1622

2279

231

0.447

0.027

6.1

0.012

...

Nashville Warbler

829

1009

0.332

0.056

16.7

0.004

...

Virginia's Warbler^†

265

300

0.407

0.104

25.5

0.005

.t.

...

Yellow Warbler

6225

10298

1388

0.561

0.011

2.0

0.402

..t

t..

t.t

Yellow-rumped Warbler

3689

4415

299

0.482

0.025

5.2

0.041

.t.

Black-throated Gray Warbler

143

165

0.454

0.189

41.6

0.007

...

Townsend's Warbler

1034

1287

102

0.455

0.042

9.3

0.003

...

Hermit Warbler

1275

1399

0.597

0.063

10.6

0.018

...

American Redstart

366

629

0.452

0.048

10.6

0.006

...

Northern Waterthrush

177

262

0.621

0.083

13.4

0.909

t..

MacGillivray's Warbler

7258

14191

1776

0.485

0.010

2.0

0.898

t..

Common Yellowthroat

2000

3831

480

0.501

0.018

3.6

0.004

...

Wilson's Warbler

4386

6951

679

0.428

0.015

3.5

0.023

..t

...

Yellow-breasted Chat

1092

2033

278

0.505

0.023

4.6

0.895

t..

Western Tanager

1842

2022

108

0.516

0.043

8.4

0.000

...

Green-tailed Towhee

350

546

0.657

0.050

7.6

0.002

...

Spotted Towhee

1436

2181

286

0.492

0.025

5.1

0.822

t..

Chipping Sparrow

1027

1276

0.432

0.046

10.6

0.010

...

Vesper Sparrow

0.754

0.110

14.6

0.000

...

Savannah Sparrow

421

591

100

0.621

0.049

7.9

0.011

...

Fox Sparrow

662

1152

136

0.535

0.035

6.6

0.566

t..

...

Song Sparrow

109

7478

15446

2036

0.477

0.009

1.8

0.928

tt.

Lincoln's Sparrow

2428

5701

744

0.433

0.014

3.3

0.333

...

t..

White-crowned Sparrow

704

1215

167

0.463

0.030

6.6

0.007

...

Dark-eyed Junco

6309

10837

1396

0.453

0.011

2.4

0.996

t..

Black-headed Grosbeak

2622

3416

371

0.554

0.022

3.9

0.003

...

Lazuli Bunting

1479

1901

143

0.517

0.035

6.7

0.001

...

Red-winged Blackbird

1064

1192

0.676

0.059

8.7

0.068

...

Brown-headed Cowbird

999

1479

196

0.485

0.030

6.2

0.004

...

Bullock's Oriole

841

1086

0.462

0.044

9.5

0.007

...

Pine Grosbeak^*†

0.325

0.251

77.2

0.000

...

Purple Finch

2795

3473

287

0.437

0.025

5.6

0.011

...

Cassin's Finch

548

584

0.524

0.109

20.9

0.001

...

House Finch^†

328

368

0.436

0.109

24.9

0.028

...

Pine Siskin

2529

2704

0.268

0.093

34.7

0.046

...

Lesser Goldfinch^†

343

369

0.389

0.153

39.4

0.000

...

American Goldfinch

1855

2485

227

0.476

0.027

5.7

0.380

.t.

tt.

Mean (81 species)

1403

2228

254

0.485

0.067

15.3

0.161

Std. Dev. (81 species)

1827

3537

526

0.114

0.057

15.5

0.301

Mean (68 well-estimated sp.)

1591

2563

300

0.501

0.049

9.7

0.19

Std. Dev. (68 species)

1916

3755

562

0.095

0.034

6.2

0.321

Click adjacent link to view additional parameter estimates for All Species in the Northwest Region:

Recapture Probability and Proportion of Residents

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¹  Defined as the probability of an adult bird surviving to and returning in a particular year (breeding season) to the area where it was present during the previous year (breeding season). The estimated survival probability (Φ), standard error of the estimate (SE(Φ)), and coefficient of variation (CV(Φ)=100*SE(Φ)/Φ) are presented.
²  Using the computer program TMSURVIV (Hines, J.E., W.L. Kendall, and J.D. Nichols. 2003. On the use of the robust design with transient capture-recapture models. Auk 120:1151-1158), a modification of SURVIV (White, G.C. 1983. Numerical estimation of survival rates from band recovery and biotelemetry data. Jr. Wildlife Management 47:716-728) to accommodate transient models.
³  These models, developed by Pradel et al., 1997 (Pradel, R., J. Hines, J.-D. Lebreton, and J.D. Nichols. 1997. Capture-recapture survival models taking account of transients. Biometrics 53:60-72), modified in Nott and DeSante 2002 (Nott, M.P., and D.F. DeSante. 2002. Demographic monitoring and the identification of transients in mark-recapture models. In Scott, J.M., P.J. Heglund, M.L. Morrison, et. al. (eds.), Predicting Species Occurrences: Issues of Scale and Accuracy. Island Press, New York), and fully formulated in Hines et al. 2003 (see above) include both between- and within-year information on transients and permit the estimation of three parameters: survival probability (Φ), recapture probability (p), and proportion of transients among those newly-banded adults that were not recaptured seven or more days later during their first year of capture (τ). In the fully time-constant model, each of these three parameters is constrained to be constant over all years.
⁴  The amount of statistical support for time-dependence in survival probability (Φ_t) is determined by summing the QAIC_C weights (w_i; Burnham, K.P., and D.R. Anderson. 1998. Model selection and inference: a practical information theoretic approach. Springer-Verlag, New York) for all models in which time dependent survival occurred. Despite support for time-dependence in survival for some species in some regions, all survival estimates presented in this table are from the fully time-constant model.
⁵  Selected models are those for which Akaike's Information Criterion (QAIC_C), modified for small sample sizes and overdispersion of data, is within 2.0 QAIC_C units of the lowest QAIC_C.
⁶  Species included are those for which (a) an average of at least 2.5 individual adult birds were captured per year from all stations pooled over the twelve years 1992-2003 (30 year-unique records); (b) at least two returns were recorded during the twelve years from all stations pooled; and (c) survival and recapture probabilities were neither 1.000 nor 0.000. Data for any given species were only included from stations where the species was a regular or usual summer resident and breeder (i.e., attempted to breed during all or more than half of the years, respectively, that the station was operated).
⁷  Region codes identify the MAPS Region in which the station is located. Data from stations in the Alaska Region (AK) and the Boreal & Arctic Canada Region (B&AC) were pooled into a single super-region, Alaska and Boreal & Arctic Canada Regions (AK/B&AC) for the estimation of survival rates. The region codes are: AK/B&AC = Alaska and Boreal & Arctic Canada Regions, NW = Northwest Region, SW = Southwest Region, NC = North-central Region, SC = South-central Region, NE = Northeast Region, SE = Southeast Region. See the NBII MAPS Home Page for a map of the Regions.
⁸  Number of stations that were operated for at least four consecutive years during the twelve-year period 1992-2003 at which (a) at least one adult individual of the species was captured and (b) the species was a regular or usual breeder. Stations within 1 km of each other were merged into a single "super-station" to prevent individuals whose home range encompassed parts of both stations from being treated as two individuals.
⁹  Total number of individual adult birds captured during the twelve years 1992-2003 at stations where the species was a regular or usual breeder; thus the total number of capture histories upon which the estimate of survival probability was based.
¹⁰  Total number of captures of adults of the species during the twelve years 1992-2003 at stations where the species was a regular or usual breeder.
¹¹  Total number of returns during the twelve years 1992-2003 at stations where the species was a regular or usual breeder. A return is defined as the first capture of an individual adult bird in any year other than the year during which it was initially marked (banded).
¹²  The sum of the QAIC_C weights for all models in which time-dependent survival occurred. The QAIC_C weight for any given model is defined as w_i={exp(-ΔQAIC_C/2)}/Σ{exp(-ΔQAIC_C/2)} where QAIC_C is Akaike’s Information Criterion for model i, modified for small sample sizes and overdispersion of data, and ΔQAIC_C is the difference between the QAIC_C of model i and the model with the lowest QAIC_C. w(Φ_t) values greater than 0.5 indicate strong support for time-dependence in survival probability while 0.50>w(Φ_t)>0.25 suggest some support for time-dependence in survival. Despite support for time-dependence in survival for some species in some regions, all survival estimates presented in this table are from the fully time-constant model.
¹³  Models involving time dependence were selected according to modified Akaike’s Information Criterion (QAIC_C), with the selected model (Model 1) being the one with the lowest QAIC_C. All equivalent models (models with a QAIC_C within 2.0 units of the selected model) are shown and listed in order (Models 2-5) of increasing QAIC_C. Despite time-dependence in one or more parameters (e.g., Φ_t) being selected for a number of species, all parameter estimates presented in this table are for the time-constant model. Models are designated as follows:  ...=Φpτ;   t..=Φ_tpτ;   .t.=Φp_tτ;   ..t=Φpτ_t;   tt.=Φ_tp_tτ;    t.t=Φ_tpτ_t;   .tt=Φp_tτ_t;    ttt=Φ_tp_tτ_t, where Φ is the survival probability, p is the recapture probability, and τ is the proportion of residents among those newly-banded adults that were not recaptured seven or more days later during their first year of capture.
¹⁴  Well-estimated species are those for which the CV(Φ)<30.0% and Φ is not qualified by the use of * or † (see below).
^*  The estimate for survival probability should be viewed with caution because it is based on fewer than five between-year recaptures, or the estimate is very imprecise (SE(Φ)>0.200 or CV(Φ)>50.0%).
^†  The estimate for survival probability, recapture probability, or both may be biased low because the estimate for τ was 1.000.

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